Governor's Team Retreats - Tries to Rebuild for 2006

The new ads by the Governor's team, which don't even mention his initiatives, are a clear indication that they have all but given up on his reform package and are now desperately trying to improve his own numbers heading into 2006. I suspect they are worried that Arnold will bow out of his re-election campaign if his numbers don't improve. They are also worried about keeping their lucrative contracts. While I believe the Gov. will run for re-election, look for major changes both inside and outside the horseshoe after Nov. 8th.

The new ad is also an admission that the only measure left with a chance of passing - Prop. 75 - has been hurt by it's association with the Governor.

Republican pollster Arnie Steinberg penned an excellent article on the Governor's troubles for the San Diego Union a couple of days ago. Here is the link.

73’s Lackluster Voter Contact Campaign

Word is the Yes on 73 guys have pulled back significantly from buying slates. With pretty much no other mass voter contact efforts in the pipeline, it is worrisome that they’d even withdraw from the most cost effective way of contacting hundreds of thousands of likely voters.

I hear that Cal-YAF honcho Brandon Powers is trying to assemble a “coalition of the willing” if you will, and put together piecemeal funds to pick up the slack for the fledgling 73 effort.

Apparently, Jim Holman, the big money man behind 73, has become gun shy in the closing days of the effort and has pulled back efforts to buy onto slates en masse, giving him the ultimate bang for the buck in voter contact efforts.

73 is looking good in the polls, let’s hope it doesn’t fall short because of these revelations.

Join Arnold 2006?

Some high level Democrat operative friends of mine insist that Arnold will seek re-election even if he loses 74, 75, 76, & 77.

What do you think? Does Arnold seek re-election if he loses ALL of his reform package?

If yes, will Arnold keep his advisors?

If no, who will run for Governor on the Republican side?

1. Senator Tom McClintock
2. Darrell Issa
3. Bill Simon

Prosper for AG? Kurzner Out of IC?

Part 1

Well, it looks like Prosper is running for AG.

Dora/Merced Girl/San Diego Sarah/, can you chime in and tell us if he can raise the money to run a good race. Is he pro-life? How is he on 2nd Amendment? Illegal Immigration? Torture of Muslim Savages? Religion? Who else is advising him/consultant?


Part 2

Rumor has been floating around that Kurzner is dropping out of IC. Kurzner's people are not doing a good job combating this rumor, or Poizner hacks are doing a great job spreading the rumor. Maybe both. I heard from Kurzner's camp that Phil is still running. So, let's end this rumor. Poizner has to at least earn the Primary race by spending his MONEY.

Oh How Things Have Changed

I just took a look at the “Arnold Voter Guide” (Tim Carey, eat your heart out!) and a few things stood out. It appears to be similar to the piece Meridian did last year for the CRP, and if so, I’m predicting another Pollie coming Matt’s way.

1)Tom McClintock is pitching the budget Reform. I seem to recall (pun intended) the Arnold folks casting McClintock supporters as “Tom-bots.” Oh how things have changed. Tom and Arnold fighting together. Wow!

2)Including Prop 73. I know it’s paid for by the Party, and I know Arnold has made his “I’d kill them” comments. But I guess I still think of Arnold as a big squish because I was surprised to see 73 included, even if in passing.

3)Poizner. I guess this is what $1.25 million buys you, a spot on the Gov’s mail piece. If 77 passes, is this a precursor to an endorsement by the Gov?

Decision-Making Time?

It is getting close to decision-making time for the Governor's political operation. Should they continue to push all four of the Governor's "reform" initiatives (74,75,76,77), or should they abandon one or more to concentrate on those with the best chance of passing?

I suspect the final decision will be made late next week. Right now, it appears that 75 (Paycheck) and 74 (Teacher Tenure) may have the best chance to pass, followed by 77(Redistricting) and finally 76(Budget).

Prop. 76 has been hampered from day one by poor drafting, a lack of enthusiasm from strong fiscal conservatives who wanted a tougher measure and a negative ballot title & summary. While this measure is a personal favorite of the Governor, don't be surprised if it is sacrificed. It would not be a huge loss.

Redistricting would be harder to drop, but it, too, could fall by the wayside in the closing days if Mike Murphy & Company see it going down anyway. National Republicans and the White House do not support 77 and would be very happy to see it go down to defeat.

Prop. 74 is not much of a reform, but anything the CTA is against deserves a vote.

That leaves Prop. 75 as the one real, substantive reform that could pass on November 8th. If the Governor comes away from this election with a YES vote on Prop. 75, the other measures will soon be forgotten. Prop. 75 is the real thing.

Doesn't "Pierre" Sound French?

I just recieved an email from Brandon Powers - Chairman of Cal-YAF about next year's Attorney General race.

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Next year's Primaries are still a long ways away, but there’s something that came to my attention today that I thought warranted sending you this note.

Pierre Richard Prosper is putting out feelers about running against Chuck Poochigian for Attorney General in next year’s Republican Primary. http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2005/10/05/BAGNDF2OOL1.DTL

I’ve spent some time looking into this, and am urging you to put the word out that this is not a welcomed candidacy. If Mr. Prosper wishes to involve himself in California politics, he’s more than welcomed to do so, but the AG race isn’t the place to start. We’ve already got a great candidate, and we need all the resources we can muster to keep Jerry Brown out of office.

A little background on Pierre:
- While he is now touting his status as a “Bush Administration official”, he previously served as a Special Assistant to the Assistant Attorney General in 1999… That’s right – he served in Janet Reno’s DOJ!... I guess that explains why the SF Chronicle would call him "presumably moderate".
- He hasn’t lived in California for about a decade, and just a few months ago reactivated his license to practice law in California – after having deactivated it for three and a half years.
- Dora Kingsley, Gerry Parsky’s consigliere, will be managing Pierre’s campaign… Again, yes that Dora Kingsley who is running the No on Prop 77 campaign to try and fool Republicans into voting for a measure that could give our Party a fighting chance in this state again.


That this New York, Rockafeller-clone can waltz in here and think the rank and file will welcome him with open arms is a slap in the face to all of us, Senator Poochigian included, who have toiled in the political fields of California, while he was off serving in Janet Reno's Justice Department.

Senator Poochigian has raised two million bucks in anticipation of a trough, expensive race. He has the venerable Ken Khachigian running his campaign, is Vice-Chair of Senate Public Safety, and is pushing for increased penalties for identity thieves… In other words, he is our best and only chance of defeating Jerry Brown and his Rose Bird-appointing liberal comrades who wish to serve as California’s top-cops.

All Mr. Prosper stands to do is dilute Senator Poochigian’s resources, drag him through a completely unnecessary Primary, and hurt our chances – and the movement’s chances – of electing one of our own to one of the most important jobs in the state.

There are plenty of things Pierre could do to help our Party and our cause in California – running against one of our champions for a race we have a real shot at winning isn’t one of them.

Please, urge Pierre Richard Prosper to pop these trial balloons that have been floated for him and instead of hurting Senator Poochigian’s chances at being elected AG, offer his assistance in helping the Senator and his campaign.

Senator Poochigian has always been there for us and our cause, I think it’s time we try to return the favor.

Poll Shows Frye In Slight Lead

In San Diego, City Council Member Donna Frye taking a slim lead over former Police Chief and Republican candidate Jerry Sanders 49 percent to 48 percent. The county party is having a good deal of problems getting volunteers to come out and support Jerry via the precinct operation. Donna continues to benefit from union support. Jerry is outraising Donna 2 to 1 but this poll is not good news for the campaign. God help us all if she is elected mayor.

http://www.10news.com/politics/5028396/detail.html